Last week, I had the opportunity to witness South Africa’s democratic process in the recently held elections touring around a few polling stations in Pretoria (Tshwane), in the Guateng province and interacting with the locals. After tallying the polls, the opposition party Democratic Alliance (DA) mayoral candidate Solly Msimanga trounced Thoko Didiza of the Africa National Congress (ANC) with 43.11 per cent of the votes against 41.22 per cent. This loss seems to have come as a surprise to the ANC because the party’s support in Tshwane alone fell by about 14 per cent when compared with the 2011 results.
This change in the political tectonic forces was not in Tshwane alone. In Johannesburg, the ANC won with 44.64 per cent of the vote — falling short of an outright majority. This is also a 14 per cent drop from its 59.66 per cent support five years ago. In the Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality, ANC also failed to secure a majority win. It polled 48.64 per cent. Compared with 2011, ANC support in the municipality dropped by roughly 13 per cent. The DA meanwhile gained by almost 4 per cent. It polled 34.15 per cent, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) had 11.23 per cent.
Whereas to a large extent South Africa and Uganda have different political, social and economic terrain, the results can help us have a comparative study of Uganda’s National Resistance Movement (NRM) and South Africa’s ANC. Both are liberation movements and the ruling parties in the respective countries. Secondly, both parties face similar challenges. NRM’s lackluster performance in the major urban areas such as Kampala, Mukono, Kasese, etc is also worth a comparative reflection. What are the reasons for these similar trends in political outcomes in Uganda and South Africa? I posit the following:
1. Weak economic performance, high cost of living and increasing rate of urban unemployment. The fall of global commodity prices has caused negative economic shocks across the continent. In South Africa, the mineral sector has limped significantly due to fall in gold and diamond prices. In Uganda, the poor performance of coffee and tea sectors coupled with conflict in South Sudan has created a struggling economy. The inflationary pressures on the Rand and the Shilling have discouraged investment due to economic risk thus worsening urban unemployment. These conditions have driven urban agitation against the ruling parties.
2. The bulging youth population has created a new class of millennial voters who are driven by the need for change. Historically, the ANC has enjoyed its political dividend from the anti-apartheid struggle. NRM has always reaped its political capital from projecting itself as a guarantor of peace and security in Uganda. However, to the young voters who never experienced apartheid or Amin and Obote brutality, these are tired and over hackneyed political songs that belong in the abstract of political rhetoric. Therefore, NRM and ANC have failed to re-brand themselves across the wider political spectrum of the young urban voters.
3. Proliferation of social media and online political platforms. These avenues have widened options for political discourse. For example, in South Africa, social media was widely used to depict President Zuma as corrupt and ineffective. In the recent elections in Uganda, social media propaganda played a major role for both the NRM and the Opposition. The shutdown of Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp on the presidential voting day in Uganda is testimony of the threat and impact social media had on the political process.
4. Weakness of the ANC and NRM youth league structures. Instead of being incubation hubs of future leaders and independent structures, the youth leagues of both parties have been assimilated into the politics within the respective parties. They have negated their role to mobilise and consolidate the youth support and new membership for the parties, and taken to partisan buccaneering within rival groups in these parties. For example, the NRM youth league allied with Museveni against Mbabazi. In the ANC, the youth league is in the spotlight after the disappointing performance in the recent elections.
5. Shrinking charisma of party leaders, death/exit of major founders/ideologues and internal divisions within the parties. The report of the Public Protector, the Nkandla judgment and reports of corruption within the government caused a lot of reputational damage to President Zuma and the ANC. Similarly, in Uganda, many feel that President Museveni is presiding over a very inefficient State with extreme anarchical looting and plundering of public resources. Almost every week, there is a fresh report of a corruption scandal. Some also argue that there are increasing cases of State repression and the government machinery is being sustained by primitive brute force from both formal and informal instruments of state coercion. Furthermore, the exit of players like Thabo Mbeki and political firebrand Julius Malema from the ANC structures weakened the party. The death of Nelson Mandela deprived the ANC of a historical and moral vanguard. In NRM’s case, the exit of people like Kizza Besigye, Miria Matembe, Winnie Byanyima, Prof Apollo Nsibambi, Prof Edward Rugumayo, Amama Mbabazi, etc explains where NRM is today in terms of leadership. The death of moderate voices of reason like Eriya Kategaya, Francis Ayume and James Wapakhabulo left the party in hands of commission agents whose major pre-occupation is wheeler-dealing and cult personality politics.
6. Emergence of “personal brand” politics has led to mushrooming of independent candidates. This has been worsened by the poor organisational competence to hold internal (primary) elections. Therefore, candidates dissatisfied with the internal intra-party process compete as independents thus dividing party support and cohesion.
7. Lastly, the emergence of more assertive judiciaries in South Africa and Uganda is a major factor. Apart from the Presidential election petition where the Supreme Court lacked evidence, the NRM has registered major losses in the MP court Petitions. In South Africa, the judiciary has been one of the major sources of headache for President Zuma and the ANC.
By and large, NRM and the ANC have organisational weaknesses in managing their transition from liberation movements to fully fledged political parties. In the process, they have become susceptible to elite capture of lobbyists, tenderprenuers, wheeler dealers, cronyism and corruption. Their capability to outspend the opposition parties in campaigns as evidenced by ANC’s estimated R 1 billion campaign machinery has delivered some very expensive wins, but greatly monetized the electoral system. Going forward, both parties will have to re-examine their role and relevance in the future political discourse within this rapidly changing political terrain they operate in.
Mr Kayondo is a lawyer and political analyst. Silverknd074@gmail.com
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