The final push: What if Museveni wins the election?

The presidential election campaign is turning the last corner; it is the final push, so to say. All the contenders are sure of victory; yet Uganda needs only one president.

I have just learnt that one of the candidates has already asked his aides to draft a possible cabinet line-up. Now contrast that confidence with remarks attributed to Ms Justine Lumumba (NRM Secretary General), Gen Kale Kayihura (Inspector General of Police) Prime Minister Ruhakana Rugunda.

The media quoted Ms Lumumba as saying that people protesting the election outcome will be shot with live bullets with the objective of shoot to kill. Gen Kayihura is also quoted as saying they were preparing for war and that the ubiquitous Crime Preventers would be given fire arms.

And what did Prime Minister Rugunda say? That ‘they’ (President Museveni, I guess) can only hand over power if the elections were free and fair.

Of course I am highly inclined to think that these fine officials were quoted out of context. Otherwise, the statements sound uncharacteristic of a government in power and betray a sense of fear that Candidate Museveni may lose. Well, perhaps these fine people know what some of us don’t?

The Opposition is confident of victory. The government betrays a sense of fear for defeat. But then the question remains: what if Museveni wins this poll?

To answer that question, one needs to appreciate the four ingredients of intelligence analysis namely: Factors, Actors, Actions and Consequence (FAAC).

What are the factors under which these elections are held? Who are the actors and how are their actions impacting on the factors? And what are the likely consequences of those actions given the factors (circumstances)?

Although this presidential race is not as tight as the one in 2006, it will mark a turning point in the electoral politics of the country because two of the candidates will not be eligible to run for office in the next presidential election.

However, my personal opinion is that Ugandans would not be surprised if President Museveni won the February 18th poll (or rather if he were to be sworn in as President of the Republic in May). Neither would they be surprised if he (Museveni) lost because there is a critical mass of people yearning for a peaceful transfer of power from one leader to another.

But would Ugandans, particularly those holding the levers of power (soft or hard), create the right atmosphere so the winner of the presidential race can take his or her prize home?

Among the eight contenders, whose victory would be easier to secure? How would the expected NRM-majority Parliament behave if Candidate Maureen Kyalya won the race?

The remarks attributed to Gen. Kayihura point to one direction: that President Museveni must be the next president whatever happens. Does that surprise Ugandans?

But what if President Museveni wins? In all honesty, is President Museveni incapable of garnering a clean 52 per cent of the total vote tally?

Even if the NRM were to rig and win in the first round, my advice is that such a win should reflect a hard fight; otherwise a whitewash like was the case in 2011 is likely to tempt political players to seek other means of taking power.