Opinion polls have become the new norm in nascent democracies such as Uganda; that is if you think it is a democracy. Opinion polls have been in the developed world since time immemorial.
One could argue that the first opinion poll was conducted in the United States of America in 1824 showing Mr Andrew Jackson (who won the presidential elections that year) leading Mr John Quincy Adams. Today in Uganda, which has been a democracy for years, opinion polls cause controversy.
Uganda is a polarised country. Many people doubt opinion polls because pollsters are accused of bias. When the state owned newspaper, the New Vision, carried out a survey which showed that 71 per cent of the electorate would vote for the incumbent, it was met with condemnation by the public.
When Research World International survey showed that 51 per cent of the electorate would vote for the incumbent, members of the ruling National Resistance Movement accused the pollsters of being sympathetic to the Opposition.
An opinion poll is a survey of public opinion from a sample which represents a population whose findings are quantified within confidence levels (a range of statistical values within which a result is expected to fall with a specific probability).
It is possible that cynics, whether they are sympathetic to the ruling party or the Opposition, question these polls because they did not study research methods at university.
For example, some have claimed that the samples were too small. A big sample can also be misleading. The cynics should ask if the correct sampling methods were used.
Are opinion polls supposed to be perfect? No. In the developed world pollsters have been compelled to revise their methodology.
Even if the methodology is perfect, there are certain realities which maybe beyond the pollsters’ control.
A good example is race. Someone might not want to be portrayed as a racist, so they will tell the pollsters they will vote for the non-white candidate but they end up voting for the white candidate. This is called the “Bradley Effect.”
This actually happened in the USA where former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American lost the 1982 California governor’s race despite being ahead in the opinion polls going into the elections. Mr. Harold Wilson, former Prime Minister, said “a week is a long time in politics.”
It does not matter if pollsters follow the correct methodology, they will still be questioned. There is a perception that elections are not free in Uganda. Critics of the NRM argue that it uses state resources to win elections, so these polls are not indicative of the mood of the country.
Many critics have argued that people are afraid to express their opinions because they do not want to be seen as anti-government.
The ruling party will argue otherwise and accuse its critics of being sore losers and power hungry. Civic awareness in Uganda is low; majority of Ugandans, most of whom are rural dwellers, do not understand their rights and duties.
Urbanites tend to be more conscious of the economic and political conditions of the country than their rural counterparts, so they are bound to oppose the status quo, but they are in the minority when it comes to voting.
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