Regardless of Feb 18 poll outcome, 2016 is start of interesting 5 years

It is just over six weeks to polling day in an election that is likely to be very consequential whichever way the results go at the presidential level.

Let’s start with the scenario that has President Museveni winning re-election. That will mean more of the same, which is lacklustre delivery of public services and goods, corruption, political patronage, teargas.

The few islands of competence such as Uganda Revenue Authority, National Water, and possibly Uganda National Roads Authority and Kampala Capital City Authority will continue providing some saving graces. Overall, however, there will be more governmental flailing.

What will be interesting is the politics as different groups within the ruling NRM party and the Opposition play for advantage ahead of the 2021 general elections.

First, political players will need to establish whether Mr Museveni, who in 2021 will be above 75 years in age, will run again. This will be easy.

If debate suddenly erupts regarding change of the Constitution to remove the upper age limit of 75 for one to run as President, it will be obvious Mr Museveni will be sticking around.
Unlike the removal from the Constitution of the term limits clause in 2005, the attempt to tinker with the upper age limit could test Ugandans’ patience. We will likely see the deadliest street protests yet.

There are Ugandans convinced that Mr Museveni plans to rule Uganda until his death day. There are those who are waiting to see. Many will, however, make a stand.

If President Museveni announces he will not be running, that will certainly be the biggest political news in Uganda since he came to power in 1986.

Either way, there will be more determination by different groups to have a new face in State House. There will be a lot of jostling within the ruling party and the Opposition.

Most viable force challenging Museveni
For losing candidates such as Mr Amama Mbabazi and Dr Kizza Besigye, competition will be fierce as to who remains the most viable and potent face of the forces challenging Mr Museveni and the NRM.

That person will rally the pro-change forces around him and probably romp into State House in May 2021. It will be all the easier if Mr Museveni is not running again.

Let’s, however, say either Mr Mbabazi or Dr Besigye wins the presidential election next month and Mr Museveni retires to Rwakitura to herd his cattle. There will be a reset of some sort in the way the government conducts the affairs of state. But only just.

I see in them both a populism I despise, the need to pander. I guess every politician has that impulse in him or her. All the same, I loathe it. I want someone who will unflinchingly make tough decisions even if that means losing favour and votes amongst some constituencies.
For example, if banning buveera is for the good of all of Uganda, ban them and enforce the ban ruthlessly. If expanding the Northern Bypass is crucial to commerce, construction must not be delayed over compensation disputes.

Those can be addressed as work continues. I have heard some senior government officials express this sentiment, but they have done nothing in practice. It is just talk, talk.

With Mr Mbabazi or Dr Besigye, you can be sure Kampala will continue with the bodaboda madness. Never mind that for a city that roamed in the wilderness for 40 years some initial pain must be inflicted for everyone, including boda riders, to enjoy easy movement and make more money.