Hurdles Besigye faces in attempt to woo northern Uganda in 2016

Dr Besigye campaigns in northern Uganda. File photo 

FDC presidential candidate Kizza Besigye arrived in northern Uganda for the first leg of his campaigns in the sub-region with the full knowledge that the tide had shifted against him in a place that overwhelmingly backed his first two shots at the presidency.

The results of his third attempt in 2011, whose credibility Dr Besigye has questioned, is the best example of that shift after Besigye lost to President Museveni in the sub-region. Mr Museveni got 55.3 per cent of the vote while Dr Besigye garnered 22.6 per cent.

With Uganda Peoples Congress’ Olara Otunnu and Democratic Party’s Norbert Mao firmly behind Amama Mbabazi and another UPC strong man, Lira Municipality Jimmy Akena, said to be in talks with President Museveni, Dr Besigye has even more work to do to garner support in the region in the February 2016 election.

In 2011, the duo (Mao and Otunnu) were competing in the same race with the FDC flag bearer and had an impact on his performance in Acholi sub-region.

For instance, in Kitgum, one of the districts Dr Besigye toured recently, Otunnu garnered 35 per cent against Dr Besigye’s 15 per cent. Mr Mao took Gulu with 42 per cent against Dr Besigye’s 20 per cent.

This performance was a far cry from that of 2006 where Dr Besigye overwhelmingly defeated the incumbent in the same districts when the duo was not in the race. He scored 75 and 82 per cent respectively in Kitgum and Gulu. It remains to be seen what impact they will have on the region and in whose favour of Mr Mbabazi, Dr Besigye or Mr Museveni will it be.

The message
Aware of this, Dr Besigye, who attracted crowds in both villages and towns throughout his campaign in the region, themed his message on people not losing hope in change.

“I asked for your support before and you gave it to me. I know some of you were losing hope, saying maybe change is not possible. But I can now confidently assure you change is coming; because the entire nation is yearning for change,” Besigye told his supporters in Agago District.

Dr Besigye said the people in northern Uganda had for long been a symbol of resistance against the 30-year NRM rule and giving that up when other parts of the country had joined them would be to betray their cause.

Using an analogy of a big tree whose roots have been uprooted and now awaits a final push, Dr Besigye said President Museveni, who has been defeated and awaits a final push out of power, is seeking refuge in a region which he had abandoned for long to endure the effects of the two-decade Lord’s Resistance Army insurgency.

However, from political appointments to infrastructure and livelihood programmes, President Museveni and by extension the NRM government, have been making efforts to stamp their foot in the region.

For example, government with the support of the donor community has been implementing post-war recovery programmes in the region. Government has since launched programmes such as the Northern Uganda Agricultural Livelihoods Recovery Programme and lately the Operation Wealth Creation.
In their report, the European Union Election Observation Mission noted that “most NRM candidates use government projects such as the National Agricultural Advisory Services (Naads) and the Northern Uganda Social Action Fund (Nusaf) as tools to press voters to adhere to the NRM should they wish to benefit from such projects”.

Post-war
In 2006, the war was still ripe in the north and this seemed to have played in Dr Besigye’s favour, hence helping him register his most significant performance. But with the war over, another hurdle is in the way.

To those still seeking answers about the war, Dr Besigye, who visited a number of memorial centres, promised that his government would facilitate accountability and reconciliation.

“This (war) is a subtle reminder of the mismanagement of our country over the last 30 years. After this episode of the NRM comes to an end, we must review what happened in this period. It is our plan that there must be truth telling and reconciliation, but with accountability,” he said in Agago.